Horn of Africa risks becoming arena for Gulf rivalry as Ethiopia drawn into power struggle - AFP
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Addis Abeba – Intensifying competition among rival Gulf monarchies is increasingly shaping political and security dynamics in the Horn of Africa, with Ethiopia emerging as a key focal point, according to an analysis published by Agence France-Presse (AFP). The Horn of Africa — comprising Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea — occupies a highly strategic position along one of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean. Its proximity to the Middle East has made the region a growing arena for geopolitical and geo-economic rivalry among Gulf states.
“For Gulf states, the Horn of Africa is a crucial battleground for geopolitical and geo-economic competition,” regional analyst Anna Jacobs told AFP.
In Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has established a particularly visible presence. A massive palace complex under construction on a hill overlooking Addis Abeba, reportedly funded by Emirati resources, has become a prominent symbol of Abu Dhabi’s expanding influence in the country.
AFP reported that the UAE provided a USD 3 billion financial package to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed shortly after he assumed office in 2018, followed by an USD 800 million currency swap agreement in 2023, which Ethiopian officials described at the time as critical for stabilizing foreign exchange reserves.
The scale of Emirati engagement in Ethiopia has drawn sharp criticism from some analysts. Former CIA analyst Cameron Hudson told AFP that the depth of UAE investment risks turning Ethiopia into a “vassal state,” a characterization Ethiopian authorities have not publicly addressed.
Ethiopia has also been pulled into wider regional tensions linked to the Gulf rivalry. Sudan’s army accused Ethiopia in December of hosting a training base for its adversaries, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), implying Emirati backing for the facility. Ethiopian authorities did not respond to AFP’s request for comment on the allegation.
Beyond Sudan, Ethiopia’s strained relations with Eritrea and its dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile have further complicated regional alignments. AFP noted that Egypt and Eritrea have sought closer ties with Saudi Arabia in recent years, partly to counter Ethiopia’s growing influence.
Analysts warn that Gulf funding risks deepening existing fault lines across the Horn of Africa. Ethiopian researcher Biraanu Gammachu told AFP that the imbalance between wealthy Gulf states and conflict-affected countries in the region creates a dangerous dependency.
“It’s an asymmetric relationship between emerging middle-power countries and donor-dependent states,” he said. “The Gulf countries’ influence in the Red Sea sustains instability in the region.”
AFP further reported that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, who rarely travels abroad, visited Saudi Arabia twice in 2025 and recently criticized what he described as the UAE’s “destabilising” role in Sudan. Hudson warned that Eritrea could become more directly involved in the Sudanese conflict, raising the risk of a broader regional confrontation.
“This could very quickly escalate into a regional conflict,” he told AFP. AS
