Eritrea, Egypt and Somalia cement 'axis against Ethiopia'

The leaders of Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea – countries which all have strained relations with Ethiopia – have been meeting in the Eritrean capital, Asmara. An Eritrean statement wrapping up the summit made reference to "respect for the sovereignty... and territorial integrity of the countries in the region".

This could be taken as a pointed reference to landlocked Ethiopia's ambitions for access to a sea port, but the country was not specifically mentioned.

A recent diplomatic disagreement has pushed Somalia into closer ties with Egypt and Eritrea, both of which have long-standing disputes with Ethiopia.

There have been fears that the growing tension could spill over into some sort of conflict.

“This is an axis against [Ethiopian capital] Addis Ababa,” Hassan Khannenje, director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the BBC’s Focus on Africa programme.

“I think it’s an attempt to bring the hate together in trying to increase pressure against Addis Ababa.”

But Somalia's Information Minister Daud Aweis denied this saying that the meeting was only about co-operation between the three countries.

"We are not determined to instigate anything against Addis Ababa," he told Focus on Africa.

"Addis Ababa is our neighbour we have been co-operating together for a long time, although later on their leadership came up with a factor of instability in the region. But still we stand for peace and we don’t think that such a meeting in Asmara has anything to do with Ethiopia."

A photograph released by Eritrea in the wake of the meeting shows President Isaias Afwerki clasping hands with his counterparts from Egypt, Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, and Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

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A statement said the three men had "agreed to... enhance the Somali state institutions to confront various internal and external challenges and to enable the Somali National Federal Army to confront terrorism in all is forms".

This was Sisi’s first visit to Asmara, while the Somali president had already been three times this year.

Ethiopia has for years been a staunch backer of the government in Mogadishu in its fight against al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabab.

But Somalia is furious that Ethiopia signed a preliminary deal at the beginning of this year with the self-declared republic of Somaliland to lease a section of its coastline. Somalia sees Somaliland as part of its territory.

Meanwhile, Addis Ababa and Cairo have been at loggerheads for more than a decade over Ethiopia's construction of a vast hydroelectric dam on the River Nile. Egypt sees this as a possible threat to the volume of water flowing down the river, which it relies on.

Last month, an Egyptian ship delivered a significant consignment of military equipment to Somalia. This came after two Egyptian military planes landed in the Somalia capital with arms and ammunition in August.

In 2018, it was hoped that the fractious relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which followed the bloody border war two decades earlier, were over.

It was then that Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a “declaration of peace and friendship” with Eritrea.

The agreement won him the Nobel Peace Prize the following year.

But ties between the Horn of Africa neighbours again deteriorated following the end of the two-year civil war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, which borders Eritrea.

Asmara had been an ally of the Ethiopian government in that conflict but has been lukewarm about the accord that ended the fighting in November 2022.

Relations were further aggravated by Abiy’s pronouncement last year that his country wanted to secure access to a port on the Red Sea.