Will Ethiopia and Eritrea manage to avoid another war?
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No official statement has been given by either side as to why the relationship soured. Political analysts and observers have speculated that the deterioration might be linked to how the war between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led Tigray Region Administration and Abiy Ahmed’s government concluded war with the Pretoria Agreement, signed on November 22, 2024.
Eritrea was militarily involved in the war after the TPLF fired rockets into Asmara in what was said to be an effort to “internationalize the war.” Before the outbreak of the war in November 2020, there had been discussions about stronger military cooperation between the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ)-led Eritrean government and Abiy Ahmed’s administration.
The TPLF reportedly initiated the war when it unexpectedly attacked the Northern Command of the Ethiopian Defense Force, which had been stationed across the Tigray region for over two decades. Notable ethnic Tigray political figures, like Gebru Asrat, a former TPLF leader and president of the Tigray region, had warned for months that the TPLF was preparing for war.
The late Meles Zenawi’s party, TPLF, had lost its dominant power at the federal level. While the core reason for its preparation for war appeared to be the desire to reclaim power at the central government level, the mobilization narrative was framed as a response to a security threat. The TPLF projected the image that “Tigray is besieged by enemy forces,” referring to Eritrea, the Federal government, and, in the northwest, the Amhara regional forces. After the war broke out a prominent TPLF propagandist, Sekoture, stated on Dimtsi Woyane TV that the TPLF intended to undertake a “preemptive strike” when it launched the attack on the Northern Command. Many members of the defense force were reportedly asleep when the attack occurred in unsuspecting circumstances.
Disorganized Ethiopian forces had to retreat north and cross the border into Eritrea. Within about two weeks, the TPLF fired over 70 rockets, according to Eritrean government supporters, targeting
Asmara and other locations. Some Eritrean activists, like Aklilu Sahle, who recently gave an interview with Anchor Media, believe that Eritrea would not have been involved in the war had it not been for the TPLF rocket attacks. The war lasted two years, claiming an estimated one million lives—mainly from three regions of Ethiopia: Afar, Amhara, and Tigray. While Eritrea was active in the conflict, it has yet to disclose the number of troops it lost. Until the war ended, the Eritrean government and the Abiy Ahmed administration were allies.
What Went Wrong Between the Two Administrations?
Still, no clear information has been released to the public as to what went wrong after the war ended. However, two recent developments in the past two weeks confirm that the relationship between the administration in Asmara and Abiy Ahmed’s administration has returned to a no-peace-no-war situation.
On November 30, 2024, Eritrean President Isaias Afeworki gave a 2 hours and 39 minutes-long interview on the state-owned Eri TV. He spent considerable time remarking on Ethiopia. Many Ethiopians perceived his remarks as belittling. However, his comments on the problems caused by Ethiopia’s ethnic-based constitution resonated with many Ethiopians and were not his first such remarks. His argument, according to translations by pro-Eritrean government activists, is that a
country plagued by ethnic-based politics, supported by a federal structure, and conflict cannot contribute to peace in the region. He further argued that Ethiopia’s ethnic problems could spill over into neighboring countries. His comments apparently angered the Abiy Ahmed administration.
On December 9, the Ethiopian government aired what appeared to be a response to Eritrea’s criticism, It was aired on state media, Fana Broadcasting. In the eight-minute-long report, the state media remarked, “Eritrean President Isaias Afeworki spent much of his time talking about other countries, including Ethiopia, while forgetting the country he is administering, Eritrea.” Specifically, his criticism of Ethiopia’s constitution was rebuffed. The report highlighted that “Eritrea itself does not have a constitution” and has never held elections since its independence from Ethiopia. Eritrean activists argue that while Eritrea’s laws are strict, its constitution remains unwritten, akin to the governance systems of some other countries. The report carried a “mind your own business” tone toward Eritrea.
Since this criticism was aired on Ethiopian state-owned media, many activists have assumed that it reflects the Ethiopian government’s official position. Some have gone further, citing “insider information,” to claim that the content was prepared in the Prime Minister’s office.
Recent Developments Suggest Growing Tensions
A more revealing development already happened before the latest two developments. Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights to Asmara, citing difficult operational circumstances in Eritrea. Subsequently, the Eritrean government sued the airline in an Asmara court for over $3 million in compensation for “loss of Eritrean passengers’ luggage.” Moreover, the phone lines between Ethiopia and Eritrea are reportedly disconnected. Eritrean migrants in Ethiopia have reported police harassment and arbitrary detention, which the Ethiopian government has denied. There appears to be no initiative for talks between the two countries. The situation increasingly seems as though the two nations are inevitably heading toward conflict. Reports suggest that Eritrea has already formed an alliance with the TPLF faction under Debretsion, and there are accusations that the latter is preparing for war again. Regionally, Eritrea has forged alliances with Egypt and Somalia, solidified by a tripartite agreement signed in Asmara in October 2024. The situation remains fluid.
