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To avoid another conflict in the Horn of Africa, now is the time to act

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Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is working to reignite conflict in northern Ethiopia. He must be stopped. The Horn of Africa is a turbulent region whose history and contemporary realities are intertwined with those of the Middle East. Just like the Middle East, it straddles strategic waters that sustain millions of people and connect continents and thus is a theatre of fierce geopolitical rivalry. Great powers and regional players perpetually circle its vast strategic resources, leading to conflicts that ravage the region and its peoples.

Eritrea has long been an eager participant in this theatre of discord. For nearly half a century, Eritrea has been involved to differing degrees in almost every conflict in the region. Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia have all been affected by its machinations. The ambitions of Isaias Afwerki, the first and only president of Eritrea since 1993, have seen his country get involved in many conflicts miles away from its borders, including those in the Great Lakes region. It seems Isaias is not just drawn to conflict but he seeks it out and thrives in it, like a pyromaniac who can’t resist setting fires.

Isaias’s 32-year reign in Eritrea is a cautionary tale. Since independence, the country has lacked all the traditional tools of governance that most nations take for granted. No constitution. No parliament. No civil service. In Eritrea, there is only one executive, legislative and legal authority – President Isaias.

In Isaias’s Eritrea, military service is also mandatory and indefinite. Young Eritreans often risk everything to try to escape a lifetime in the president’s military. As such, the major export of the Eritrean state, apart from illicit gold, is the large number of young men and women who risk their lives to illegally migrate to neighbouring countries and Europe. Eritreans flee from their country in droves to escape forced conscription into military service and other dystopian realities created by the regime.

War is the main business and preoccupation of the Eritrean state. Stirring conflict here and there, supporting rebels, insurgents or governments seeking war and division throughout the region seems to be the raison d’etre of the Eritrean state.Today, Isaias is once again engaged in manoeuvres that are as destructive as they are predictable

After years of strong animosity towards and direct clashes with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – the party that ruled Ethiopia’s Tigray region since 1975 and waged war against the federal government from 2020 to 2022 – Isaias is now trying to exploit divisions within the group’s ranks.

The history here is long and bitter. In the late 1990s, a falling-out between Eritrea and Ethiopia erupted into a bloody war. After years of bloodshed, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed managed to secure a peace agreement between the two countries in 2018 and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts.

Regrettably, reconciliation with Eritrea did not deliver long-term peace dividends. Because, for Isaias, building trade and infrastructure connections between Ethiopia and Eritrea was of no interest. He had no appetite for economic cooperation despite it being beneficial to both countries.

When the TPLF launched its ill-fated bid to reclaim power in Ethiopia by unseating Prime Minister Abiy in 2020, Isaias saw his chance. Eritrean forces surged into Tigray, leaving devastation in their wake. The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, which ended the conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, was a diplomatic triumph for Ethiopia and the African Union. But it was a personal setback for Isaias, who thrives in conflict and sees peace as an obstacle to his efforts to expand his influence.

It soon became clear that Isaias wanted the conflict in the Tigray region to continue indefinitely and Ethiopia to bleed into oblivion. To invalidate the Pretoria Peace Agreement, he engineered a militia in Ethiopia’s Amhara state. More recently, he has

also found common cause and joined forces with elements within the TPLF who were unhappy with the peace agreement.

His cynical and dangerous machinations are now threatening to undo the Pretoria Peace Agreement. A faction of the TPLF and its armed supporters are openly expressing their intent to dismantle the interim administration set up as per the peace agreement and tear up the whole peace deal. The implications of such a development would be catastrophic, both for Ethiopia and the wider region.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. To Ethiopia’s west, Sudan is consumed by civil war. To the east, Somalia is struggling to rebuild after decades of gradual collapse. Across the Sahel, extremist groups are gaining ground. A possible return of conflict to the Tigray region must be assessed in this context. A belt of chaos stretching from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa would be catastrophic. It would embolden groups like al-Shabab and ISIL (ISIS), creating new havens for terror and disrupting global trade through the Red Sea.

The consequences of renewed conflict in the Horn wouldn’t stop at Africa’s borders. Waves of refugees would head for Europe and beyond, further straining already fragile systems. Extremist ideologies would find fertile ground, their reach extending into the Middle East. Global powers, from Washington to Beijing to Brussels, have a stake in what happens here. The Horn’s stability is a shared interest.

The world must act. Diplomatic pressure is needed to deter those who want to see an end to peace, like Isaias. The Pretoria Peace Agreement must be defended. Regional cooperation must be incentivised with investments in trade, infrastructure and governance. This is not just an African problem. It’s a global challenge.

If the Horn descends into chaos, the ripple effects will be felt everywhere. But if peace takes root, the region could become a bridge – linking continents, fostering trade and unlocking potential. The choice is stark, and the time to act is now.