Abiy is calculating war with Eritrea, Can he be stopped?

Why is Abiy Ahmed Mongering a new war with Eritrea? The answer to the question is simple: it is the only card he has to stay in power. Right now, Abiy is without a solid base to maintain his position. As we remember, he started as a pro-Ethiopian politician enjoying the unreserved support of all Ethiopians, except for those hardline ethnic elites. Later, he managed to convince the Oromo base called Kero, which was under the influence of Jawar Mohammed, to align with him and galvanized most Oromo elites under his leadership. However, recently, he has faced problems among the Oromo elites who are frustrated that they might lose power due to the weak stature and leadership of Abiy. He has lost momentum on every front: diplomatic, economic, governance, and, most importantly, military, having been defeated by Fano in the Amhara region and losing control of 80% of the region. 

In addition, the forces in the Oromia region have also controlled most of the area, making Oromia ungovernable for him and his coalition. His image as a leader is shattered; he looks like a young gambler on the streets of a small city. All his calculations have fallen short. People now know who he truly is. In the country, no one wants to see him right now. Hence, the Oromo elites are now considering/contemplating Plan B, to replace him. That is why he is gathering the different elite groups of the Oromo region in the recent days: the old OPDO gangs gathered by Abiy himself in Jimma, the Oromo regional parliament (Chefe) gathered by Obbo Shimelis, and the two main opposition parties in the Oromia region at Elilly Hotel. In these meetings, he is trying to control this ethnic base which might prefer to be led by Jawar or Obbo Lemma Megerssa (PhD), the previous Oromia region president. Abiy is now back to the status of his first and second years regarding support from Oromo elites. At that time, the Kero of Jawar Mohammed was not with him. After Jawar Mohammed started opposing him openly, there seems to be a real crack. This crack can manifest among the Oromo generals (who make up more than 80% of the country’s military leadership) or his own security apparatus, which is dominated by his ethnic group. Hence, his safety is in danger. To divert this division, he needs war, like he did war with Tigray at that time, to divert the opposition from Jawar and other competitors. This time seems war with Eritrea. 

Fano in the Amhara region has humiliated Abiy’s military effectively. His biggest misstep in his leadership was to send the army into the Amhara region. Now, to survive, Abiy is using drones every day on civilians since he cannot get the Fano leaders or fighters. Even the international community has supported him by turning a deaf ear to the massacre in the Amhara region using drones. However, the struggle in the Amhara region is gaining momentum, though there are some minor setbacks. Abiy knows that the floodgates are coming and it is very close to taking him out of power. He is counting his days. To come out of this mess, he has only one card: to wage war on another country so that he can gamble to save himself from the coming purge. So, Eritrea is a scapegoat. Since Assab is an area where Ethiopians have unfinished business regarding their landlocked status as a country with close to 130 million people, he is trying to exploit the situation to his benefit by promising to get access to the sea. That is why he is drumming up war using his network, as evidenced by the piece posted by the former president of the country on Al Jazeera. He is a Nobel peace winner based on his role to make peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia. He wants somebody to communicate to the international community about his next war steps. The former president was given that role to send a piece, which may be written by Abiy himself to Al Jazeera.

One may ask several questions: Is he really going to war? Is he prepared for it? The answer is yes, he will go for it. What else can he do to keep his kingship? He might not win since he may not have the right coalitions for now. But did he care if tens of thousands of young people fell? Amhara Fano might not agree with him, and most of TPLF might not be with him; only a faction may align with him. In the first rounds of war, Eritrea might have the upper hand, like in the 1998 war between the two countries. The Ethiopian leaders at that time were not well prepared. People were initially reluctant to join the then leaders. However, after two years of galvanizing the people, TPLF leaders managed to gain the upper hand over the Eritrean forces. Abiy himself is part of that story. He was a soldier on the front line. He knows what happened at that time. Many young people were sacrificed during those two years. But he doesn’t care if tens of thousands of young people will be slaughtered again. In the past four years, on his watch, over 1.5 million people have died in many conflicts across the country. Bloodshed is the new normal for him. He is prepared for millions more to die for him to keep his power. Now he is mongering war by spreading fear among the Oromo people by saying “the northerns are coming for you.” Everyone should know that the Oromo people are the first victims of Abiy’s kingship. There is no meaningful peace and order in the region. 

Can he be stopped? 

Can Ethiopians and Eritreans stop him ? Yes, is the answer. First, if war starts it will be on in those parts of the country near the border to Eritrea: Amhara, Tigray and Afar regions.  The people in Afar, Tigray and Amhara should think twice. Eritreans should also think twice before they go into conflict with their immediate neighbors. These neighbors will live together for 1000 years. So war is not the way forward.  The war will take place in their territory, creating more bloodshed and distraction,  while those in Addis Ababa and the southern part enjoy their day to day as if nothing happened in the northern part of the country. We have seen it in both the Tigray and Amhara region war. It is the people where war is happening who suffers most. Both human life and  the infrastructure which was (is) most devastated. Why allow Abiy and his gangs to triumph over their misery and distraction? It is better to unite and stop him from this madness. He might even have a mission from somewhere to cause more destruction in the country. No one should trust and listen to this man. He should be stopped from leading the country into another devastating war at all costs. The Northerns should know better.

The people in the Oromia region should also stop him from galvanizing the people in the region for more bloodshed. People with sound minds should challenge him. The Oromo people are among the leading groups that made Ethiopia, and they should strive to live in peace and uphold the rule of law with their fellow citizens in the country.

African leaders and the international community should also stop this man from his madness before he creates a mass massacre and ethnic conflict among 100 million people in the country. The consequences will be out of control for the Horn of Africa, for Eastern Africa, for Europe, and for the globe in general. War is not the way forward for anyone. He should be stopped at all costs!

By Selam Yishalal

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com