Gebru sees no correlation between the inauguration of the ammunition factory and an expected war with Eritrea, which some believe could break out at any time. He analyzed the development of ammunition production within the framework of the challenges of self-defense when relying on imported ammunition, which could be obstructed for many reasons. He also sees an economic rationale in producing ammunition domestically—apparently to avoid spending hard currency.
Regarding the Ethiopia-Eritrea confrontation-like situation, Gebru says he does not see any fundamental reason at this point for the two countries to go to war.
He identifies Assab as a potential flashpoint. Contemplating a Crimea-like scenario, he advised against prioritizing military moves. He argues that Ethiopia has a rightful claim to Assab but pointed out weaknesses on the part of the Ethiopian government in preparing a legal case and presenting it to multilateral forums like the United Nations and the African Union.
Making a legal case and pursuing it on diplomatic fronts should come before rushing to military action, he says.
He also accused Ethiopian government politicians of failing to understand what he called the “permanent Shabia [Eritrean government] policy” on Ethiopia. “What they want is a weak Ethiopia so that they can emerge as a powerful player in the region,” he said.
On the other hand, he accused Eritrea of “controlling Ethiopian land by force.” He added, “If Ethiopia takes control of Assab, it is Eritrea that started the illegal control of land.” Eritreans deny controlling any Ethiopian territory.
Like a few other former TPLF politicians, Gebru believes that foreign powers from the region would intervene if war breaks out between Eritrea and Ethiopia. He sees state actors like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and even Iran as having vested interests.
Eritrea has been responding to conversations about war between the two countries. Yemane Gebremeskel, Eritrea’s Minister of Information, on Friday wrote about what he called “warmongering.” “The war-mongering psychosis that has apparently gripped certain political circles/trolls in Ethiopia these days is astounding indeed…” he wrote.
Trading accusations and insults has recently become common among pro-Eritrean government and pro-Ethiopian government activists on social media.
Gebru Asrat’s interview is featured below. Share your thoughts in the comment section.
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