Abiy Ahmed’s Desperate Gamble: Is War against Eritrea the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s Lifeline?
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While some dismiss the possibility, arguing that Abiy’s internal struggles render him incapable of sustaining a regional conflict, a deeper analysis suggests a more perilous reality. TPLF leaders consider war between the fractured TPLF factions (led by Debretsion and Getachew) as increasingly likely, given Abiy’s determination to integrate thousands of Tigrayan forces into his military. This is evidenced by his support for Getachew’s camp through the former TPLF military chief, Samora Yunis, who now advises the current military chief, Birhanu Jula. Abiy’s regime, facing a seemingly insurmountable cascade of crises, appears to be teetering on the brink of collapse. His precarious position, likened by some to a crumbling “house of cards,” makes war with Eritrea less a calculated strategic move and more a desperate act of survival.
Abiy‘s motivations, however, are likely far from a genuine desire for military victory. Instead, the looming conflict appears to be a cynical attempt to create chaos, extending his political lifespan and deflecting attention from the deepening domestic turmoil. The situation within Ethiopia is dire, characterized by:
Economic Collapse: High inflation, severe foreign currency shortages, and the depletion of a $5 billion IMF loan (July 2024 to Jan 2025) have crippled the economy. Further compounding the issue, the recent suspension of US aid by the Trump administration has exacerbated existing food and health crises.
Political Fragmentation and Widespread Insurgency: The ongoing conflict in Tigray with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) remains unresolved and continues to escalate. Simultaneously, the growing power of the Fano militia in the Amhara region, coupled with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) seizing control of large swathes of the Oromo region, has rendered vast areas ungovernable for Abiy’s government. This widespread insurgency severely restricts Abiy’s movement, confining him largely to Addis Ababa due to security concerns.
Escalating Ethnic Tensions: Underlying ethnic tensions continue to simmer, threatening to further destabilize the already fragile nation. Conservative figures suggest hundreds of thousands have been killed and close to 10 million people have been displaced since 2018, with 21.4 million people in need of assistance throughout Oromo, Tigray, Somali, and Amhara regions.
Rampant Use of Drone Warfare: Abiy’s increasing reliance on drone warfare, with drones acquired from the UAE, Iran, Turkey, and Israel, has alarmed everyone, including his western supporters & the IMF. The African Union continues to grapple with the escalating violence in Ethiopia, including rebel attacks, government drone strikes on villages, and widespread reports of ethnically motivated attacks and abuses. Abiy’s government is nearing the grim distinction of being labeled the world’s leading perpetrator of drone attacks – both overt and covert – against its own citizens.
Faced with this overwhelming pressure, Abiy may perceive a war with Eritrea as a necessary distraction. He likely believes that Eritrea will primarily focus on defensive actions, allowing him to operate with impunity from the relative safety of Addis Ababa. Furthermore, by initiating conflict, Abiy could attempt to shift international blame for Ethiopia’s internal problems onto Eritrea.
This strategy, however, is profoundly reckless and short-sighted. It is not a strategic maneuver for national gain, but a desperate gamble for personal survival. The potential consequences for regional stability are immense and deeply concerning. The international community must remain vigilant, exposing this dangerous ploy for what it is: a calculated effort to manipulate
circumstances for personal gain at the cost of peace and the well-being of millions in the region. The possibility of a war ignited by a leader clinging to power should not be underestimated, and proactive measures to prevent further escalation are urgently needed.
*This article contains analysis and assumption based on current events and available information. The situation is rapidly evolving, and future developments may alter the analysis presented here.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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