At any moment war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out. It will draw in the whole neighbouring region, including Sudan, and the security of the Red Sea will be directly affected. Central to the conduct and outcome of this conflict will be Tigray, which has a substantial, well trained and experienced military.
Under normal circumstances Tigray would stay away from such a conflict and promote peace. We have suffered enough. While the option for peace may be narrowing, leaving war as the only option; all final avenues to avoid conflicts must be perused urgently.
After the Pretoria peace agreement of 2 November 2022, the alliance of the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments has gradually deteriorated so much so that going to war seems inevitable. Preparations are in their final stages. The nature of preparations for war is such that after a certain stage of the process, it becomes very hard to hold it back. The Tigray region is at a critical geopolitical, historical, cultural, and political confluence of the impending war.
Predatory state behaviour
My preference is that Tigray opt for peace. It has suffered enough. But in these strange times when leaders choose violence rather than negotiations, the prospect of war being imposed and Tigray becoming a battlefield for Asmara and Addis Ababa is real.
The Tigray region has a specific political relevance much greater than its physical size. Its geographic, cultural, historical position is critical to what happens in the sub-region of the Horn of Africa. Tigray borders Eritrea and Sudan in its international boundaries. Internally Tigray borders Amhara and Afar regions. This is what makes Tigray so vital to other people’s war plans.
I have observed the consistent predatory state behaviour of Eritrea ever since its independence. It is based on taking advantage of countries around it, particularly Ethiopia and Sudan.
From the outset, Isaias Afwerki and his followers wanted to give the Eritrean state a character that combines the military invincibility of Israel, emulating the economic success of Singapore, and the social well-being of Denmark at the same time.
They wanted to achieve this not based on their own national resources, which could have been fine, but at the expense of their neighbours. The policy instrument to achieve the objective was/is the “mighty Eritrean military” created during the 30-year-long armed struggle.
Eliminating Tigray
This policy direction brought Isaias and the Eritrean state into confrontation with their brothers south of the Mereb River. By the prism of Isaias and his followers, the main obstacle to their dream is Tigray.
They tried to eliminate the Tigrayan people as happened in the recent genocidal war (2020-2022) conducted in tandem with the Ethiopian government. Now again, the state of Eritrea is ready to go to war to finish what Isaias has termed “Tekolifna” which means we have been frustrated, after the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA).
The transition from “Game over” at the beginning of the war and Tekolifna after the CoHA is a clear manifestation of Isaias’ intentions.
Because of this, Tigrayans are once again in an existential crisis. The divisions in Tigrayan politics mean that those Tigrayans who want to protect themselves from accountability for their past and present crimes would rather side with Eritrea, the country that invaded Tigray in 2020.
Eritrean behaviour is well documented. They killed any man who was of an age to serve in the military. They raped our women. They plundered our assets. Their purpose was to turn Tigray into a wasteland.
Still, those in the fragmented TPLF and military who want to protect their past and current misdeeds would prefer to protect themselves by joining Isaias in alliance. In doing so, they believe they will use him and his regime to topple Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and then turn on Isaias. The taste for power with total impunity has not left this group, and their indifference to the fate of the people of Tigray is undiminished.
National project dilemma
The Eritrean state and the party know the significance of Tigray and are in a dilemma. Consolidating their national project cannot be achieved without annihilating their Tigrigna-speaking brothers to their south. At the same time, they know that without the full support of Tigray, they don’t stand a chance of surviving let alone being victorious in a war against Ethiopia.
The result is that those who massacred our fellow Tigrayans in Axum and Mariam Dengelat and committed war crimes all over Tigray now seek collaborators among Tigray’s political and military leadership.
The Tigrayan leaders who are suspected of cooperating are the ones who have claimed to protect the political status quo that was there for more than 30 years. Leaders scared of accountability and those who want to maintain the status quo and opposed the widely accepted political reform are suspected of joining hands with Isaias.
Maintain the peace
This situation could lead to war against the expressed desire of the people of Tigray. Following a genocidal war conducted jointly by Ethiopian and Eritrean Defence Forces and the subsequent Pretoria agreement, the best political position for Tigray is to maintain the precarious peace, demand and work for the full implementation of the Pretoria agreement.
This position has been loudly expressed by the people of Tigray both at home and abroad.
Any war between the two countries has the potential to be protracted, even though both parties will tell you and try to persuade you that it will be short and decisive.
Devastating regional outcome
Whatever the duration and how it is fought, it could have several devastating outcomes for the region. When the war ends, the geography of the states as we now recognise them will not be the same. There will be a major political re-alignment in the whole region of the Horn and beyond in the Red Sea arena.
This war could be conducted at a time when the attention of the international actors who matter is drawn to other parts of the world (Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East and the Democratic Republic of Congo in Africa). The decisive actors to shape the outcome of the war will be rich Middle Eastern countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and Turkiye.
The main brunt of the war will be felt in Tigray, the battleground where the fate of the war will be decided.
For Tigray, the best option is to avert the war and adhere to the full implementation of the Pretoria agreement and work for fast recovery. This would mean a policy of peaceful coexistence with Eritrea and a policy of deterrence to avoid war. Tigrayan interest is best served first by averting and if not possible by shortening the duration of the war, and maintaining our survival.
Now it is clear the agreement is in danger. It is the responsibility of the Ethiopian government and international partners to the peace agreement (sponsors and observers) to step in and avert another disastrous war in our region at the eleventh hour.
In case the effort to deter war fails, the shortest termination of the war by all means (military or diplomatic) is in the best interest of Tigray and the region.
But there is another option where a reformed Tigray co-exists within Ethiopia with a reformed Eritrea on its frontiers. This, surely, is the strategic option that all in Tigray, Ethiopia, Eritrea, the wider region and the international community would welcome.
This column represents solely the views of the author, not those of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray
