Eritrea Is the North Korea of Africa: America Must Act

The United States Should Openly Support Regime Change in Eritrea: Africa may be the world’s second most-populous continent and a growing economic powerhouse but, for too long, the White House and State Department have treated it as an afterthought. Often, this manifests itself in missed opportunities: Africa is the world’s second most populous continent and potentially a wealthy one. The Democratic Republic of Congo alone has $214 trillion in untapped mineral wealth. At other times, U.S. officials do not hold Africans to the same standards as they would Europeans or Asians.

Consider the case of Eritrea: Upon winning its independence in 1993, Eritrea should have thrived. Its capital Asmara is one of the world’s loveliest, a world heritage site with a moderate climate and some of the best preserved art deco architecture. Eritrea’s independence leader, Isaias Afwerki, was genuinely popular. Eritrea also had a cohesive enough history and population that its religious and ethnic diversity could be more assets than a source of instability. Its strategic position along the Red Sea imbued Eritrea with commercial potential about which landlocked African countries could only dream. Culturally, Eritreans were primed to thrive. 

Unfortunately, Isaias had other ideas. While he could have won any election initially, he chose to forego them entirely, not even undertaking a pantomime process as dictators do in Egypt or Azerbaijan. Nor do war heroes or liberation necessarily make good stewards of government. Such was the case with Isaias. He did not understand economics, nor did he care. Eritrea’s standard of living plummeted.

In effect, he followed Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe’s model. When Mugabe established Zimbabwe upon the ashes of Rhodesia, he inherited a state with good physical infrastructure, a stable currency, a productive agricultural sector, and a good manufacturing base. By the end of his tenure 37 years later, Zimbabwe was in total economic collapse, with its currency devalued by the second worst case of hyperinflation in history (after Hungary 1946) and its agriculture grinding to zero after race-motivated land redistribution.

Eritrea: The North Korea of Africa? 

Isaias also took a page from late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s playbook. To distract from his own mismanagement, Isaias launched a war against Ethiopia, sending forces into territory he disputed. That 1998-2000 border war, likened by contemporary analysts as “two bald men fighting over a comb” because of the insignificance of the land involved, killed up to 100,000. That war devastated Eritrea and sent Isaias into a spiral of tightening authoritarianism. Isaias also implemented a system of indefinite national service, essentially reducing Eritrea’s youth to slavery. In 2024, Freedom House ranked Eritrea alongside North Korea in its “freedom in the world” rankings; North Korea even scored marginally higher in civil liberty measurements.

Rather than subject themselves to manual labor to benefit Isaias only rather than build a state, many chose instead to flee, risking their lives to flee across the desert and Mediterranean Sea to Europe and perhaps onward to the United States. For Isaias, this is a win-win situation, for those who make it to the West send remittances home to keep his economy afloat. Eritrean embassies tax the Eritrean diaspora, even those who have renounced their citizenship.

For most countries, embassies are mechanisms with which to conduct diplomacy. Ambassadors and more junior diplomats engage with counterparts and host government officials, and sponsor cultural events to advance their country’s interests. Both North Korea and Eritrea, however, treat embassies as criminal enterprises. North Korean diplomats seldom mix, but instead use their status to engage in everything from narcotics to trade in endangered species. Eritrea uses its posts to extort the diaspora under threat of harm coming to their relatives back in Eritrea, illicit surveillance, and fundraising under false pretenses, 

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On November 26, 2024, Yohannes Teklemicael, Eritrea’s ambassador to South Sudan gave an 

He described how Eritrea operates on four fronts: three within Eritrea and the fourth among the diaspora. The ambassador admitted that the primary job of Eritrean embassies is to “administer this fourth front.” When Eritreans need any item from the embassy, they must sign a “regret form” to acknowledge they fled Eritrea illegally, pay the two percent tax retroactively, and join an embassy-mandated association: All Eritreans under 40 must join Isaias’ People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) Youth Association, the corollary Women’s Association, or the Mahberekom Association that organizes the remaining men. In addition to the two percent tax, each of these associations requires membership dues that it transfers to the PFDJ-controlled Himbol Bank in Eritrea. The embassy also operates a school to continue the indoctrination of local students.

Eritrea is increasingly a problem not only for its neighbors and the United States, but also for the broader region. Isaias has long been arrogant. While Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won a peace prize for burying the hatchet with Eritrea, Isaias sees their partnership not as one between equals but rather between mentor and student. Indeed, in his interview, Teklemicael described Abiy as “childish” and predicted his imminent loss of power. 

 

Isaias continues to hold Djiboutians that Eritrean forces kidnapped from within Djibouti itself, but also arms two separate Sudanese tribes to involves himself in what is the world’s bloodiest ongoing conflict. Previously, Isaias trafficked in Somali army recruits to use as cannon fodder for his own adventurism in Ethiopia, much as Russian President Vladimir Putin uses involuntary North Korean units. By any definition, Eritrea is a state-sponsor of terrorism.

Don’t Ignore Eritrea 

The incoming Trump administration may choose to ignore Eritrea, but this would be a mistake given the instability it can catalyze and terrorism is sponsors, as well as the financial impropriety in which Eritrean officials engage in the United States.

While Congress is polarized, Democrats and Republicans both from the “Squad” to the MAGA fringe should have common interest in countering a regime that runs roughshod over U.S. law and is alongside North Korea, the world’s greatest violator of human rights. In 1998, Congress united to pass the Iraq Liberation Act which, among other facets, authorized the United States to work with, fund, and otherwise empower opposition groups. While U.S. forces have no business in Eritrea nor would their deployment be wise, Congress might authorize funding to build the capacity of the Blue Revolution movement among other groups.

Eritrean diplomats including those at the United Nations are already subject to the Foreign Missions Travel Control Program that limits them to a 25-mile radius of their embassy or mission. The Justice Department should crackdown on Eritreans who act as unregistered foreign agents, however. The Asmara regime may not care if the U.S. expels such agents; as they can always compel others from within the Eritrean community. Instead, it will be essential to prosecute, fine, and jail those who violate U.S. law.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury should also tighten sanctions on Eritrean banks, financial institutions, and money transfer agencies such as Himbol. That an Eritrean ambassador identified Himbol’s operation is significant; that the Eritrean government scrambled to erase that video highlights its sensitivity to the regime.

The State Department should make clear to the United Arab Emirates that it should cease its partnership with Africa’s most destabilizing state, one which is increasingly a partner for China. It might also convene, perhaps in conjunction with the National Endowment for Democracy, a “Future of Eritrea” project to identify and assess the areas of greatest need upon Isaias’ exit.

It is also essential to sanction Isaias, his family members, and key confidants among his military and intelligence service. As Isaias nears the end of his life—he is 78-year-old, has suffered a stroke, and is generally in ill-health—it is time the United States plan for transition. Eritrea is less a state than a criminal enterprise. Eritreans deserve better. The money Isaias and his cronies have stolen and sent abroad should be identified, seized, and placed in a fund that a provisional Eritrean government can utilize and apply to the country’s reconstruction.

It is easy for U.S. officials to say Eritreans deserve better. Rhetoric is cheap and business as usual only preserves the status quo, however. President Donald Trump need not engage actively in Africa, but he should empower his incoming National Security Council and assistant secretary of State for African Affairs to do so to help Eritreans rid the world of one of its worst regimes. 

About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics. The author’s views are his own. 

In this article:Africa, Donald Trump, Eritrea, North Korea

Written ByMichael Rubin

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics.