A dangerous frenemy: Averting a showdown between Eritrea and Ethiopia

“Eritrea has recently declared a country-wide military mobilization, amidst rising tensions with Ethiopia. The risk of an open conflict between the two countries is a real one, and its consequences would be catastrophic for the region and beyond.”

Over the past few years, each side has resorted to providing (more or less direct) support to the other’s domestic opponents. In addition, Eritrea perceives Abiy Ahmed’s quest for access to the sea as a threat, while Ethiopia is irked by Asmara’s growing ties with Egypt, its main regional rival. In recent weeks, the disputes have further escalated, with Addis hosting the gathering of a prominent Eritrean opposition group, and officials from both sides trading increasingly harsh and explicit public accusations. Rapidly increasing tensions among the leadership in Tigray, where Addis and Asmara back opposing local political factions, make the situation even more dangerous.

Against this backdrop, the prospect of a full-scale war cannot – and should not – be discounted. An all-out conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia would have terrible consequences in the region and beyond. Besides coming at a potentially devastating human cost, a war between the two sides risks deepening Eritrea’s decades-long cycle of militarization, political repression, and underdevelopment, while further exacerbating Ethiopia’s domestic instability. The repercussions for the already volatile Horn of Africa region would be disastrous, particularly given Ethiopia’s size (over 120 million people, spread across a vast territory that borders on six other countries) and regional clout.

Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo:

“Regional and international actors should jointly work to de-escalate tensions. The African Union has a leading role to play, but also Saudi Arabia, the UAE, China, as well as the EU and the US - can also contribute to push both parties towards de-escalation.”

In addition, the consequences of a conflict would extend far beyond the Horn, posing a threat to one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, and exacerbating (already large) migratory flows from the Horn to the Arabian Gulf and to Europe. To prevent this, international actors – including, but not limited to, the European Union  and its member states – should combine efforts to de-escalate tensions between the two sides.