Eritrea: Saudi Arabia could invest in Assab port, study outlines potential scenarios

Saudi Arabia is reportedly planning billion-dollar investments in Eritrea’s Assab port, in what could usher in a profound strategic shift in the Horn of Africa region. Eritrea Focus, a London-based think tank focused on human rights abuses in Eritrea, wrote today in a report with unspecified sources, outlining the regional consequences of a potential move that would position Riyadh as a key player in the region, challenging the dominance of other powers such as the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and China. According to the authors, the investment in Assab’s port could also dampen the maritime ambitions of Ethiopia, a country that has remained landlocked since Eritrea’s independence (1993) and is waging a vigorous political campaign on this issue. For Eritrea, on the other hand, aligning with Saudi Arabia could serve as a protective strategy against Ethiopian military ambitions, ensuring that its sovereignty over Assab remains unchallenged.

A potential partnership between Riyadh and Asmara would not only strengthen Eritrea’s position, it could also shift regional power dynamics, potentially neutralizing Ethiopia’s influence over access points to the Red Sea. For the report’s authors, potential Saudi investment in the port of Assab would mean more than just economic development: the interest would highlight a realignment between Saudi Arabia and Eritrea to safeguard their respective interests along one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. Such cooperation could provide Eritrea with the support it needs to resist Ethiopian pressure and strengthen Saudi influence in Africa’s geopolitical landscape. The move could then trigger reactions from other regional players, including the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and China, all of which have strong interests in the region’s maritime corridors. Each of these actors has pledged to extend their influence in the region through infrastructure investments and diplomatic engagements, and Riyadh’s new focus on Assab may prompt individual actors to reconsider their strategies in response to the new alliances.

For Somaliland – the Somali breakaway region disliked by Mogadishu – developments around Assab could have mixed implications. On the one hand, a stronger Assab could divert some attention and resources from the regional port of Berbera, in which the UAE has invested. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of Assab could sharpen the need for more allied ports along the Red Sea, potentially increasing overall security and economic activity in the region. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Somaliland and Ethiopia, which provided for mutual recognition and economic cooperation, could also be put to the test. Ethiopia’s potential isolation in the Red Sea arena could actually lead to a reassessment of its foreign policy, particularly with regard to its agreements with Somaliland. As the Red Sea becomes an increasingly contested geopolitical space, if confirmed, Saudi Arabia’s actions – coupled with the responses of other regional and global powers – would undoubtedly shape the future political landscape of this critical region.