Stop the Next Ethiopia-Eritrea War Before It Begins

When the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan opposition signed a cessation of hostilities agreement in late 2022, the deal ended one of the most lethal wars of the 21st century. The conflict involved land armies of tens of thousands of troops, mechanized units, and air power more evocative of the Battle of the Somme in 1916 (albeit with more advanced weaponry) than the Battle of Mogadishu in 1993. Credible estimates suggest that the death toll surpassed 600,000, which is likely an underestimate.

The Pretoria Agreement, named after the South African capital in which it was signed, provided for the establishment of an interim administration in Tigray, a small province in northern Ethiopia bordering Eritrea and Sudan. As that administration’s two-year anniversary approaches in mid-March, it is in critical condition.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) formed the vanguard of the movement to overthrow Ethiopia’s communist dictatorship, the Derg, in the 1990s and dominated the country—and the region’s—politics until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. Abiy sidelined the TPLF and now its rival factions are engaged in a zero-sum struggle for dominance inside Tigray. One is led 

by TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael; the other by the interim administration’s president, Getachew Reda.

The political divides have infected the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF), which had fought both the Ethiopian and Eritrean militaries in the last war. On March 10, Getachew ordered the removal of three senior army commanders, whom he accused of plotting against the interim administration in collusion with Debretsion’s faction. On March 11, reports emerged that dissident TDF units had seized control of eastern Tigray from the legitimate administration. The risk of a coup against the administration or the assassination of some of its leaders can no longer be ignored.

Amid broader regional and international disorder, the deterioration of the political and security situation in Tigray is dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite an interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Such a situation could create an international wildfire, exacerbating Sudan’s own civil war next door and generating further instability in the region.

Developments in the Horn of Africa have to be seen within the context of the rivalries amid the Gulf countries over control of the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia, for example, may not welcome the military presence of Ethiopia on the Red Sea coast, so long as Ethiopia is seen to be closely aligned with the United Arab Emirates.